2013 phosphate fertilizer and ** stable market demand

According to the 2013 Phosphorus Market Symposium held in Beijing recently, fertilizer production in 2013 will maintain a slight growth trend. However, with the promotion and application of balanced fertilization and new fertilizers, the growth rate of demand for chemical fertilizers in China has gradually declined. It is expected that the growth rate of fertilizer demand in 2013 will be 2% to 3%, and the increase in demand will be smaller than the increase in production, resulting in fierce competition and downward pressure on prices. Phosphate fertilizer, ** market will be based on the overall stability.

Wu Xuemei, deputy director of the China ** Industrial Association and secretary general of the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, explained that the production of phosphate fertilizer in 2012 was 16.93 million tons, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. Among them, the output of high-concentration phosphorus compound fertilizer was 14.62 million tons, accounting for 86.4% of the total; low-concentration phosphorus fertilizer was 2.31 million tons (passed through 2.09 million tons of calcium phosphate and 220,000 tons of calcium magnesium phosphate fertilizer). The physical output of diammonium phosphate was 14.6 million tons, the physical output of monoammonium phosphate was 13.28 million tons, the physical production of heavy calcium was 1.06 million tons, and the output of NPK compound fertilizer was about 60 million tons.

In 2012, the apparent consumption of phosphate fertilizer in China was 13.74 million tons P2O5, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year. The apparent consumption of phosphate fertilizer is higher than that of agriculture. By the end of 2012, China's phosphate fertilizer production capacity was approximately 22 million tons P2O5, and the phosphoric acid production capacity for fertilizer production was approximately 18.70 million tons P2O5. Diammonium phosphate production capacity of about 18.5 million tons, about 16.5 million tons of monoammonium phosphate production capacity, phosphate NPK production capacity of about 11 million tons, heavy calcium production capacity of about 2 million tons.

In terms of import and export of phosphate fertilizers, in 2012, the phosphate fertilizer industry exported 2.5 million tons of P2O5, a decrease of 34% year-on-year, accounting for 14.8% of the total output of phosphate fertilizers. Ammonium phosphate and heavy calcium accounted for 21.6% of the world's processed phosphate trade volume. Exported 3.93 million tons of diammonium phosphate, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, accounting for 27% of the world's trade volume of diammonium phosphate; exports of 600,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate, a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%, accounting for 8.6% of world trade in monoammonium phosphate; exports of heavy calcium 85 Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of 50.8%, accounting for 24.5% of the world's heavy calcium trade volume.

Wu Xuemei analyzed the market situation of phosphate fertilizer in 2013. She pointed out that in 2012, the demand for phosphate fertilizer in the world was 40.7 million tons P2O5, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous year. On the demand side, the Indian government reduced its subsidy for DAP once again in the 2013-2014 fiscal year, as the country's diammonium phosphate inventory carried forward last year was also large and it is expected that this year's demand may be reduced. The oversupply of phosphate in the world will lead to the decline in the prices of international phosphate fertilizers. Coupled with the decline in demand in India, the export situation of phosphate fertilizers in China will be severe in 2013.

In addition, domestic phosphate fertilizer prices are under downward pressure and profitability of the industry is also difficult. Constrained by the apparent overcapacity of phosphate fertilizers, this year, both DAP and NPK ex-works settlement prices were reduced by RMB 100-150/t from the previous year. The freight rates for both railways have been raised since May 2012, which has increased the transportation cost of phosphate fertilizers from Yunnan-Guizhou to the Three North regions by an average of RMB 100/t. Although the price of raw materials, such as *yellow, has fallen, the cost of phosphate fertilizers has been difficult to reduce due to lower operating rates, increased transportation costs, and the profitability of the phosphate fertilizer industry may continue to decline this year.

In 2012, China produced approximately 5.2 million tons of yellow, including 2.204 million tons of natural gas for recycling, 2.88 million tons of oil for recycling, and 280,000 tons for chemical recycling. The import of yellow was 11.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. With the completion of the Luojiazhai Project of CNPC, it is estimated that the production capacity will be 1 million to 1.5 million tons, and China's self-sufficiency rate will rise to a new level. In 2012, China's yellow consumption amounted to 15.4 million tons. Of these, 84% were used for the system.

China's industrial layout is still concentrated in the production of phosphorus compound fertilizer and industrial developed areas. In 2012, China's ** output was 84.03 million tons, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. The amount of imports from China has fallen year-on-year since 2009. In 2010, the import of ** 1.05 million tons, a decrease of 5.8% over the previous year; export ** 8 tons, a decrease of 81.8% over the previous year.

According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2012, there were 422 manufacturing enterprises above designated size in China, with a production capacity of approximately 106 million tons. In 2012, China's apparent consumption amounted to 84.98 million tons, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year. With the increase of natural gas purification, petroleum refining, and chemical recycling*, it is expected that by 2015, China's yellow production will reach 6.5 million to 7 million tons. With the development of the non-ferrous metals industry, its by-products will increase by more than 13 million tons during the 12th Five-Year Plan, equivalent to an increase of more than 4 million tons of resources.

Experts in the industry said that from 2013 to 2014, a large number of new domestic production capacity will be released, and **supply will be more abundant. ** The situation of oversupply in the market has also become more severe. All the new production of smelting acid entered the market, and all the production of yellow acid based on energy demand also entered the market, while the growth of ** consumption was limited. Experts predict that the growth of phosphate fertilizer production this year will be limited, and the demand for gambling will tend to be stable. The increase in output of chemicals, light industry, textiles and other products is limited, and it is difficult for the consumption of ** to increase substantially. **The market will be dominated by smelting acid, and some of the mineral acid and yellow acid plant will be forced to stop production and reduce production.