Basic metal materials continue to decline slightly differentiated

Since April this year, the base metals have tried to bottom out, but in the midst of poor data from China and the United States, and the suppression of consumption in April, the rebound has failed. Looking ahead, basic metal materials continue to decline, but due to mixed performance in the supply and demand fundamentals of various varieties, the trend will be slightly divided, with copper price materials leading the decline, and aluminum prices due to the central market to the market to control the excess capacity of the aluminum market Signals, increased resilience.

Inadequate data from China and the United States, aggravating global economic growth Since the beginning of the year, the macroeconomic outlook at home and abroad has continued to be bearish, the European debt crisis has resurfaced, and manufacturing activities have been plunged into recession, which has weighed on the economic outlook in the euro area. Recently, Sino-US data have weakened again. It is an increase in worries about the growth of the global economy. Under this pressure, in April, the high US dollar index correction is not effective in stimulating the rebound of the base metals, and it has recently achieved the same downward trend. On the macro level, the weakness of China’s economic data is even more depressing the market’s confidence because China is the world’s largest consumer of basic metals. China's GDP in the first quarter slowed to 7.7%, worse than the expected growth of 8% and the previous value of 7.9%; from January to March, China's industrial added value increased only 9.5% year-on-year, worse than the expected and previous values. The indicator was As a synchronous indicator of economic growth, the impact of this bearish factor on the market will continue to ferment in the next 1-2 months.

The declining marginal effect of the expansion of liquidity This year, most central banks in the world except the Bank of Japan have not moved. However, even if Japan announced the launch of a new round of monetary easing in early April, its impact on commodities lasted for less than a week, indicating that the marginal effect of the expansion of liquidity on commodities has decreased significantly. The tightening is expected to put pressure on bulk commodities. In this regard, it is particularly necessary to pay attention to China. Since February 19, the central bank has conducted positive repurchase operations several times in a row to release a prudent neutral signal to the market. Although the year-on-year growth of the CPI in March fell to 2.1%, which eased concerns that the policy may tighten in the short term, on the other hand, the new ***** reached 610 billion yuan in March, far exceeding market expectations, while February The increase in new accounts for occupies continues to be high, forcing the monetary policy to be neutral.

Basic metal trend material differentiation By analyzing the supply and demand fundamentals of copper, aluminum and zinc, we can find that aluminum supply and demand surplus pattern is the most severe, but due to the negative factors have long been accepted by the market, and gratifying is that the recent central policy frequent, transfer out Greatly eliminate the signal of backward production capacity in the aluminum market. From the recent annual report of the aluminum industry, many aluminum companies in China have suffered losses or sharp declines in their profits in 2012. Among them, China Aluminum suffered a loss of 8.2 billion yuan, making it the most serious loss year since its listing. In this context, the Central Government can no longer sit idly by and ignore it. The game between the two places has deepened. Although compared to China's electrolytic aluminum production of approximately 1.7 million tons per month, the phase-out capacity of 273 million tons of backward production capacity can be described as a “salonous salary,” but in order to promote the implementation of the policy, the central government also plans to issue a list of environmentally friendly aluminum smelters. This means that listed companies will receive support from the government in reducing costs, while the loser may be forced to cut capacity. The list is expected to be announced during the year. At the same time, leading leaders in the industry gathered in Beijing to try to discuss reductions in production. Although they did not reach a substantive result, they also sent a good signal to the market. On the demand side, the central government recently specifically mentioned the need to expand the scope of aluminum applications and promote energy conservation and emission reductions.

In terms of copper supply and demand, in 2013, the copper market will change its oversupply situation over the years to oversupply, which will continue to exert pressure on copper prices during the year, especially when Shanghai copper stocks continued to climb and hit a high point since 2003. . In addition, the current position of copper prices is much higher than its production cost, and the financial attributes are the strongest, so the downside seems to be stronger in the later period.

The price of zinc, due to the tightening of supply side, cost support and the recent reduction in Lun and Zinc inventory, is expected to be lower than the copper price on the downside.

In summary, under the pressure of systemic risks at home and abroad, copper, aluminum, zinc and other basic metals rebounded and slumped. However, due to lack of fundamentals in supply and demand among different varieties, the trend was slightly different. The copper price is expected to continue to decline. , Shanghai copper 1308 contract below concerns 52,000 yuan of support, Shanghai aluminum 1307 continued stagflation and defensive, support concerns 14400 yuan, Shanghai zinc is concerned about 14,300 yuan.