Coal prices will rise by 10%, and electricity prices will rise during the inflation-sensitive period.

Price increase!

At present, the national coal contract has just begun, and the price of coal in major coal provinces has been raised by about 40 yuan.

For power plants that are already facing losses downstream, accepting this price increase is not an easy task. Previously, CEC's cost statistics for the five major power generation groups showed that by the end of September this year, the domestic market coal price rose more than 100 yuan / ton over the same period of the previous year, the average price of the five major power groups to the factory standard coal rose more than 15%, operating pressure huge.

Shenhua Group people predicted to this newspaper that coal prices still have room to rise.

The source said that coal prices may eventually rise by 10% on the basis of this year. "At present, if power companies want to be flat, the on-grid price will increase by 2 cents."

It is reported that the China Electricity Council has once again recommended that the relevant departments adhere to the implementation of coal-electricity linkage to solve the problem of long-term upside down of thermal power prices. In addition, it is also recommended to take measures to further promote electricity price reform.

Conspiracy to raise prices
On November 9th, Jiangsu 2011 Coal Supply and Demand Fair was held, and more than 20 coal-fired power plants and other coal units participated in the meeting. However, this newspaper was informed that during the meeting, some key customers of the power plant only filled in the 2011 coal demand intention table, and did not sign a specific price.

Informed sources said that just a few days before the coal-fired docking in Jiangsu Province, some officials from the Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi Coal Departments had privately discussed who would raise prices first, and who would follow suit. A person from the Shanxi Provincial Administration of Work Safety told this newspaper that "this is the price of self-discipline and advancement and retreat of the enterprise. Of course, it is not recognized by the outside world. It is said to be market regulation."

At the beginning of November, Shanxi Province's 2011 coal source purchase and sales contract negotiations began. The result is that the average contract price of 5,500 kcal standard coal in 2011 is expected to be 490 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from last year's contract price. In almost a week, other provinces followed up on coal prices in roughly the same magnitude. Shaanxi Province Northern Shaanxi Mining Group said that we are similar to Inner Mongolia, and each ton has also increased by about 30 yuan. "I want to go up more, but the government is not allowed to rise."

While coal prices have risen in large numbers, coal stocks in Qinhuangdao ports and domestic large power plants have been high.

According to information provided by Qinhuangdao Port Overseas Coal Market Research Department, on October 31, Qinhuangdao Port's coal stock was 7.106 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons. At the same time, the coal inventory of domestic large power plants is also very high, reaching more than 62 million tons, an increase of nearly 2.2 million tons, and can be used for about 20 days.

In fact, the coal stocks at Qinhuangdao Port were higher in mid-October and near the end of the year, reaching 7.345 million tons. However, it fell to 6.494 million tons on November 9, and the operation tends to be normal. In particular, the inventory decline in the past week has been obvious, and it has dropped to 5.953 million tons as of November 18.

verbal warning
At the beginning of the coal-fired docking negotiations, that is, the price of coal prices “invariably”, this is almost the practice in recent years.

The National Development and Reform Commission, which understands this practice, clearly stated at the National Coal Work Conference on November 9 that coal enterprises should proceed from the overall situation and do not casually raise prices while protecting coal supply.

However, people from the Shanxi Coal Group said that “the NDRC is now pressing the price, but maintaining the price this year is the minimum guarantee? If everything is going up, it’s okay to raise the point again. Let’s talk about it first.”

“The coal enterprises said that they are up 15%. The National Development and Reform Commission does not allow price increases. Press one button at the bottom, and the middle will be combined, and eventually it will be around 10%.” Shenhua Group said that coal prices will rise because this round of coal reform makes it safe. The cost has increased.

The persistence of coal companies has made the NDRC's verbal price limit seem non-binding. On November 17, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index, which showed that the average price of the 5,500-kilometer Bohai thermal coal in this period was 790 yuan, a slight increase from the previous period; since September 15 this year, the price index has been rising. The status has so far increased to around 80 yuan.

For power plants that are already facing losses downstream, the difficulty of accepting this price increase can be imagined.

In a recent report, China Electricity Council said that since 2003, China's coal prices have continued to rise. Qinhuangdao's 5,500 kcal coal has risen more than 150%, while sales price has risen only 32%. Since the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated the coal-electricity price linkage mechanism in 2004, a total of four coal-fired price linkages have been implemented, but there is still a large gap.

The China Electricity Council said: "Because of continued losses, the current heating period in the north is about to begin, and the power plant begins to store coal in winter. Some power plants have no money to buy coal, which may create risks that cannot guarantee power and heat supply."

A person from the Inner Mongolia Safety Supervision Bureau also told this newspaper that the price of coal is now high, the profits of coal bosses are too high, and the losses of power plants are very serious. "The price of electricity is controlled by the state, and the price of coal enterprises is rising. The loss is more serious."

Inflation price change?

China Electricity Council had to propose for the third time this year to implement measures to increase electricity prices, such as coal-fired power linkage. The National Development and Reform Commission also intensively issued two documents in the recent period, all pointing to the price adjustment.

On November 12th, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Measures for the Management of Power Demand Side”. This regulation has been interpreted by the industry as an increase in electricity prices in areas where electricity costs are high, depending on the season and electricity consumption.

Prior to this, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of Ladder Electricity Prices for Residents' Living Electricity (Consultation Draft)". The National Development and Reform Commission divided the residential electricity consumption into different grades, and adopted different ranges depending on the increase in electricity consumption. The way to raise prices. This is one of the most important measures to rationalize the electricity price mechanism introduced by the National Development and Reform Commission under the current circumstances.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in the three years of the initial stage, stability is the main factor, and the price of electricity used by 70% of residents is basically stable. The price increase for electricity consumption is 10%, and other industries are slightly higher than this. Even reaching a level of about 2 cents per degree.

At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has already completed the solicitation of the ladder price. The next step is to consider how to introduce it and when it will be introduced. But the question is, with the intensification of inflation, can the National Development and Reform Commission raise the price of electricity in the sensitive period of rising prices?

Experts from the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission told this newspaper, "According to the National Development and Reform Commission's assumption, this adjustment of electricity prices has not only been to simply compensate for the loss of power plants, but to consider the mechanism of gradually rationalizing the price of electricity. Recently. In the past few years, the lesson of resource price reform, including electricity prices, is that inflation should not be an obstacle to price reform. Otherwise, it will only be more and more contradictory."

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