Abstract On the macroeconomic side, the US fiscal cliff (the sudden drop in the amount of money) is based on the trend of rising bond yields. The probability of occurrence is high, which will adversely affect its 13-year economy and drag down the global economy. European leading economy Germany...
In terms of macroeconomics, the US fiscal cliff (the sudden drop in the amount of money) is based on the trend of rising bond yields. The probability of occurrence is high, which will adversely affect its 13-year economy and drag down the global economy. Germany, the leading European economy, is also on the verge of recession. The economy in the fourth quarter shrank by 0.5% from the previous quarter, the worst quarterly data since the financial crisis. However, the final value of the core consumer price index for the Eurozone in December rose by 0.5%. The crisis has not yet been lifted, and the consumption data may be more driven by the end of Christmas, so it is not optimistic about the next stage.
Domestically, according to the latest data, GDP for the full year of 2012 increased by 7.8% year-on-year. Compared with the growth of 9.3% in 2011, the Chinese economy experienced a significant decline in 2012, with a 13-year low, but if it is from the quarterly cycle. In view, the Chinese economy has stabilized in the fourth quarter. With the advancement of urbanization, we expect the economy to pick up further.
Looking at the next phase of the global economic downturn, the overall situation may continue. For cobalt, the United States lists cobalt as one of the strategic resources that have a very important impact on homeland security and the national economy. It is also one of the nine mineral resources that are seriously short of China. It is mainly used in the field of battery materials and high-temperature cemented carbides, and has obvious correlation with consumption and the real economy.
The price of electrowinning cobalt on the Pan-Asian Nonferrous Metals Exchange is currently 194 yuan per kilogram. It has been oscillating in a small box of 190-200 in the near future, at the lowest box. The market has not shown signs of reversal.
According to customs statistics, as of November 12, China's imports of cobalt ore decreased by 48% year-on-year, and cobalt wet smelting intermediate products increased by 30% year-on-year, mainly due to low freight rates and high yields of intermediate products. Bigger imports in this area. In terms of the total amount, the cobalt mine is calculated according to 7% taste and the taste of the intermediate product is 25%, and the total import volume drops by nearly 6000 metal tons. Although imports have decreased year-on-year, downstream demand has been stable and the destocking phase has not yet ended.
From the perspective of enterprise costs, long-term orders between domestic and foreign suppliers began to be signed. Cobalt miners insisted on lowering prices to reduce risks. Domestic companies faced extremely low profits or losses, so the two sides still need further negotiations. This also means that the cost of raw ore is relatively rigid, and the price of the finished product is supported by factors in this regard.
Cobalt prices have risen slightly since January, but sustainability is yet to be tested. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is limited. The industry believes that price increases are more driven by cost and are consistent with the situation reflected by foreign long-term orders. For future trends, there is limited room for further decline, and future prices need to focus on the battery sector and domestic infrastructure.
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