According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 13th, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter of this year was 4931.9 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 14.8% year-on-year (a real increase of 10.9% after deducting the price factor). According to industry insiders, the slowdown in consumption growth is in line with expectations, especially for automobile and home appliance products. It is expected that the consumption of furniture, construction and decoration materials in 2012 may become an important carrier for the upgrading of consumption structure. In January and March, consumption rebounded slightly. In March 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 1,565 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 15.2% year-on-year (the actual increase of 11.3% after deducting the price factor, the nominal growth is unless otherwise specified). From a ring comparison, the total retail sales of consumer goods in March increased by 1.18%. Compared with previous years, experts believe that the “push-ups†situation of consumption growth of 18.1%, 14.7% and 15.2% in January-March this year is basically in line with expectations. Under normal circumstances, the growth rate of consumption in the first month after New Year's Day and Spring Festival will be obvious. Fall back and rebound slightly after the second month. Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University, said that despite a small rebound in consumption in March, the consumption growth rate in the first quarter still showed a slight weakness. From the external environment, there is currently no driving factor supporting the rapid growth of consumption, and consumption is expected in the future. It will remain relatively stable for some time. A number of market institutions have analyzed and predicted that consumption growth will remain at around 15%, which is weak compared to the performance of the economic boom, but not too bad. In addition, in view of this year's consumption is expected to become the first driving force for economic growth, Qilu Securities macro strategist Liu Qiyuan said that this is relative, and does not explain how strong the growth of consumption, but the investment is even weaker. Yin Jianfeng, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "If the cycle is prolonged, consumption will maintain a relatively stable growth over the past 30 years. The growth of consumption depends on the increase in household income, and it is expected to see a large consumption in the short term. The growth of automobiles and home appliances is slowing down. According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, in the retail of goods, the retail sales of enterprises above designated size (units) reached 2.1177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. Among them, the automobile category increased by 11.0%, and the growth rate dropped by 3.2 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the household appliances and audio-visual equipment category increased by 0.6%, down by 19.9 percentage points. In response to the slowdown in the growth of sales of automobiles and home appliances, the market indicated that the adjustment of policies, on the one hand, promoted the recovery of automobile consumption to normal growth. On the other hand, it is expected that the consumption of household appliances will shift from accelerated growth to low growth and even negative growth. According to the first-quarter depositor survey report released by the central bank, consumers’ willingness to buy a car in the first quarter reached the highest value since the 1999 survey. Liu Yuanchun said that the high willingness showed the shift of consumer purchase expenditure, and also brought a certain signal to reverse the low growth of automobile consumption in 2011, but in 2012, automobile consumption will not return to the high level in 2010. From international experience, per capita GDP of 1,000 US dollars is a sign that cars enter ordinary households. The per capita GDP reaches 3,000 US dollars, and cars will enter ordinary families on a large scale. "China is currently in the stage of rapid popularization. Without policy stimulus, the growth is more from its endogenous nature. However, considering the increase in the cost of car purchases such as fuel and parking fees, it will suppress some consumption. Therefore, car consumption will be relatively balanced. It is expected that the annual growth rate will remain at 2 digits, about 10%." Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Research Department of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of the Ministry of Commerce. In addition, in response to the slowdown in home appliance consumption, Zhao Ping said that this is related to the exit of the policy of home appliances to the countryside in the three provinces and one city (Shandong, Henan, Sichuan and Qingdao) last year. The cumulative sales of home appliances to the countryside accounted for the overall sales in these areas. The 35% of the amount has caused a certain impact on the growth rate. Coupled with the high base in 2011, the growth rate of household appliances consumption will slow down this year. Third, the furniture category into a "baton", consumption promotion month will be mild and good experts said that the consumption of furniture, construction and decoration materials is related to the hot and cold of the real estate market, but considering that this year 4 million sets will be built at the end of the year, yet The rigid demand for housing in second- and third-tier cities, as well as the upgrading of consumption structure in first-tier cities, will continue to grow steadily, driven by more environmentally friendly and high-end products. In addition, considering that people of different income levels have a sequential order in the upgrading of consumption structure, it is expected that this growth rate will not be interrupted in the short term, but will form a chain of continuous growth. The 2012 Consumer Market Development Report from the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce shows that consumption of furniture, construction and decoration materials has remained maintained in 2011 with strict real estate market regulation and without expanded consumption policy support. With rapid growth, it is expected that after the accelerated upgrading of automobiles and home appliances, the consumption of furniture, construction and decoration materials may become an important carrier for the upgrading of consumption structure. In 2012, the growth rate will reach or approach 30%. Become a new bright spot in consumption growth. Zhao Ping said that expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption all need to abide by the law of market growth. If the stimulus policy is transferred to the areas where the development momentum is good in the past few years and there is no benefit policy support, it will get a more obvious pulling effect and also help stimulate. Consumption has grown steadily and rapidly, and it is expected that these two types of commodities will become new “relaysâ€. In addition, along with the launch of the first China Consumer Promotion Month, the industry is expected to “moderately†boost consumption growth, and consumer will be enhanced in the second quarter. In addition, energy-saving products, fitness, and culture will also be Consumption injects a lot of color. Jiang Chao, chief macro researcher of Guotai Junan, said that it is still more optimistic about the growth of durable consumer goods, and the overall growth rate of consumption will also stabilize.
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