Business agency February 6 hearing 2011 China's polysilicon industry is like a roller coaster, polysilicon prices fell from the highest 750,000 yuan per ton to 200,000 yuan per ton. In 2012, China's polysilicon industry will also face the European debt crisis, the United States "double reaction", the United States and South Korea low price dumping, domestic electricity prices and other issues, the industry eagerly hopes that China will speed up the implementation of the "on-grid tariff law" and increase efforts to start the domestic In the market, the largest PV producer is the largest application country.
The “birth†and “ice†baptism China's polysilicon supply in the first three quarters of last year was in short supply, and more than half of the companies in the fourth quarter stopped production or reduced production.
In 2011, China’s polycrystalline silicon production capacity reached 120,000 tons, planning and announced the start of construction of a production capacity of 100,000 tons. In 2011, the country’s total polysilicon production was 60,000 tons, an increase of 33% from the 45,000 tons in 2010, and 58 enterprises were declared as first-approved. Into the company 20. Although there are many manufacturers, but the industrial concentration is high, 80% of the production is concentrated in Zhongneng, China Silicon Hi-Tech, LDK, and Chongqing Daquan. The rapid development of domestic polysilicon production companies has broken the international polysilicon industry. China has become the second largest polycrystalline silicon producer in the world after the United States. The world’s top 10 polysilicon companies, China has 3, including Jiangsu Zhongneng, Luoyang Zhongsi and LDK. The new production capacity in 2011 came from technological upgrading and new construction, mainly adopting the improved Siemens production process. With the improvement of technical and operational skills, the safety and environmental protection of various companies have been further improved, and the mainstream technological status has been recognized by the market.
In 2011, domestic polysilicon still fell short of supply. According to statistics, the domestic solar cell production capacity is about 30 GW, and the industrial chain is perfect. If the production capacity is full, the total demand for polysilicon will exceed 200,000 tons. According to customs import data, China's total imports of polysilicon reached 53,019 tons from January to October 2011, and it is expected that the total import volume will exceed 60,000 tons in 2011. The proportion of polysilicon in China is still about 50%.
In 2011, China's polysilicon experienced the "fire" and "ice" baptism. In the first three quarters, the supply of polysilicon was in short supply, and the price rose to a maximum of RMB 750,000 per ton. However, in the fourth quarter, due to the impact of the US financial crisis, especially the European debt crisis, the end market lost its support for funds, and a large amount of photovoltaic products were under pressure. Since September last year, the price of polysilicon raw materials has fallen sharply. Coupled with the massive dumping of low-cost polycrystalline silicon in the United States and South Korea, the price of polysilicon has dropped to as low as 200,000 yuan per ton. More than half of China’s enterprises have stopped production or reduced production, and the entire industry has entered “winterâ€. .
The technology and industry bases have doubled the level of manufacturing of some domestic equipment, and there are many technological upgrading tasks to be done.
China's polysilicon mainstream production process is to improve the Siemens process, a few manufacturers use silane method, but the output is very small. There are four steps to improve the core technology of the Siemens process: preparation and purification of raw materials, reduction, hydrogenation, tail gas recovery and recycling of by-products.
The preparation of raw materials has been able to meet the requirements of polysilicon production. Purification of raw materials generally uses purification towers, such as high-efficiency packed towers, high-efficiency sieve towers, etc., comparable to foreign technologies, but the stability of product quality is directly related to the purification of raw materials. Energy consumption is also related, so there are still some areas for improvement.
Restore technology and equipment, at present, there are 12 pairs of rods, 18 pairs of rods, 24 pairs of rod reduction furnaces and 36 pairs of rods and 48 pairs of rod reduction furnaces that are independently developed in China. The technology has been synchronized with the world and even reached a more advanced level. . The power supply and feeding system of the reduction furnace has Chinese characteristics. The best result of reducing power consumption is 45kWh/kg in China, and the output of single furnace reaches more than 7000kg. The technology and device of imported reducing furnace and digestion and absorption have the same effect.
The core technology of comprehensive utilization of by-products is hydrogenation of silicon tetrachloride. China has high-temperature hydrogenation and low-temperature hydrogenation (hydrochlorination is also attributed to low-temperature hydrogenation). At present, domestic polysilicon enterprises with a capacity of 1,000 tons have hydrogenation technology. High-temperature hydrogenation is limited due to its high power consumption and large-scale production. Currently, low-temperature hydrogenation technology is widely promoted. The hydrogenation conversion rate of this technology is about 20% to 30%. After 4 to 5 cycles of silicon tetrachloride, it can be recycled. All recycling, hydrogenation power consumption has been less than 0.6kWh/kg-TCS, is a key technology to reduce costs and solve environmental problems.
The tail gas dry recovery, the domestic 10,000-ton-scale plants have tail gas dry recovery system. The independent research and development of dry tail gas recovery technology, the processing gas has reached more than 30,000 cubic meters / hour, can be used for more than 10,000 tons of polysilicon production systems. However, the level of domestic equipment manufacturing is uneven, and the difference between large and small plants is huge. There are still many technological upgrading tasks to be done.
In 2011, the implementation of Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements, the first batch of 20 companies to gain access, played a positive role in regulating industry development and reducing investment losses. The cruel reality of the current market also proved the necessity of government regulation and early warning. . In conjunction with market access, the industry has jointly completed the formulation and validation of the National Standard for the “Energy Consumption Limit of Polysilicon Enterprises' Products per Unitâ€. The standard indicators are reasonable, simple and intuitive, easy to operate, and play a role in regulating and guiding the development of the polysilicon industry, advocating energy conservation, emission reduction, and cleaner production. It has a good guiding role for companies to reduce energy consumption and costs.
There is an urgent need to activate the domestic market and increase efforts to start the domestic market and turn the largest PV producer into the largest application country.
The polysilicon industry is a newly developed industry and has received extensive attention from related departments and the media. In 2012, China's polysilicon industry will also face the European debt crisis, the United States "double reverse", the United States and South Korea low-cost dumping, rising domestic electricity prices and other issues, the industry consolidation will further intensify. The industry eagerly hopes that China will expedite the implementation of the “On-grid Electricity Tariff Actâ€, explicitly support the solar photovoltaic power generation industry, increase efforts to start the domestic market, change the largest photovoltaic producer to be the largest application country, and use China’s large number of deserts, Gobi and buildings to install solar photovoltaic systems. Store energy for the future; Support independent research and development of technology, further improve quality and reduce costs; Support the industry in the development of common technology research in the polysilicon industry, including testing methods, various specifications, standards, etc.; Support advantageous enterprises to implement technological transformation or new production capacity ; Priority filing approval.
During the “winter†period, domestic polysilicon companies must firmly believe in the future of the photovoltaic industry, continue to work hard, continuously improve technology, reduce energy consumption, reduce costs, improve self, and unswervingly improve the polysilicon process with Chinese characteristics, improve quality, and enhance The ability of the world’s old polysilicon companies to compete has provided China’s photovoltaic industry with basic raw material support, so that the Chinese PV industry can continue to maintain its international competitiveness. Only in the "winter" does it not fall, will have the opportunity to meet the new "spring."
Expert opinion: Lu Jinping, Vice General Manager, Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd. “2012 is a year of overcapacity in global photovoltaic industry. The integration of polysilicon industry as raw material supply is unstoppable.â€
Polysilicon process technology continued to improve in 2011. For example, in the key technology chlorohydrogenation process, domestic companies have upgraded to the 100,000-tonne 4th-generation hydrogenation technology in 2011, not only converting 100% by-products of silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride, etc. from polysilicon production to trichlorosilane. The raw materials are recycled, and other trace chlorosilane by-products of the polysilicon production process are also used efficiently. Through the large-scale application of 40 pairs of rod efficient energy-saving reduction technologies, polysilicon energy saving and environmental protection manufacturing are achieved.
2012 is the year of excess global PV production capacity. The integration of polysilicon as raw material supply is unstoppable. At the end of 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first list of polysilicon industry access, but only four companies that have become truly global in terms of competitiveness include Jiangsu Zhongneng, LDK Solar, Luoyang Silicon, and Chongqing Daquan. The company's capacity production capacity of over 10,000 tons in 2012 exceeds 100,000 tons, providing quality and cheap polysilicon raw materials for the arrival of the era of parity solar power generation.
In 2012, China’s polysilicon industry was an externally challenging year. With the shift of photovoltaic cell manufacturing to China, polysilicon from the United States and South Korea began dumping large quantities in China in 2011. Recalling the history of polysilicon development, as a national semiconductor material industry for strategic development, China had as many as 20 polysilicon companies in the 1960s and 1970s, but under the technological conditions of developed countries in Europe and America, production energy consumption was high, and the environment Serious pollution leads to high production costs and small industrial scale. In the 1980s, the European and American giants even attacked the Chinese market with sub-costs of $20 to $30 per kilogram of electronic-grade polysilicon. Chinese polysilicon companies were essentially wiped out. By the end of the last century, only one survivor survived the industry research. Emei Semiconductor Research Institute! After the technological breakthrough, China's polysilicon industry needs to treat the trade invasion aggressively!
New Energy observes that the polysilicon industry is facing severe winter Wang Shijiang In 2012, China's polysilicon industry still has a long way to go. On the one hand, companies need to work hard to reduce costs. On the other hand, they need to hold groups to warm up and jointly respond to the winter. At the same time, it is also necessary for the competent authorities to give full play to the regulatory role of the market mechanism, guide industrial integration, and give support to enterprises and technical reforms in terms of policies.
First, the industry will still bear price pressures. According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Union Secretariat, the global PV polysilicon production capacity will reach 440,000 and 540,000 tons respectively from 2012 to 2013. After deducting 40,000 tons of silicon for semiconductors, it can meet the demand for polysilicon cells of 57GW and 71GW, according to EPIA. It is estimated that the installed capacity of the global photovoltaic market in 2012 and 2013 will not exceed 30 GW, so it will continue to bear the pressure of oversupply for a period of time in the future. The majority of polysilicon production capacity in China is released within two years, the production process needs to be optimized, production costs are still higher than foreign companies, and bear the pressure of debt service and other pressures, so foreign polysilicon products and some domestic SMEs cut the blood for winter Under the circumstances, polysilicon prices will continue to operate at low levels for some time to come.
Second, the dependence on imports will continue. First, China's polysilicon production costs are still at a disadvantage compared with foreign advanced polysilicon companies. Second, the production capacity of most polysilicon enterprises in China has just been released, the technology reserves are insufficient, and the stability of the production process and product quality needs to be further improved. Third, China's polysilicon companies are relatively small. Currently, there are only three companies that have already put into production and have a production capacity of 5,000 tons, while the number of major foreign polysilicon companies is more than 10,000 tons. As the domestic downstream large-scale photovoltaic companies have more than 7,000 tons of polysilicon demand each year, suppliers may be more inclined to supply polysilicon companies with strong supply capacity. Fourth, current polysilicon is mainly based on long-term contracts. Major PV companies have already signed long-term agreements with foreign polysilicon companies. Therefore, under the influence of such factors, in the coming years, polysilicon products from abroad will still cause a greater impact on China's polysilicon industry.
Again, mergers and acquisitions will continue. Judging from the development experience of the foreign polysilicon industry, large companies will occupy a dominant position in industrial development. Only through the continuous investment of large companies in technology and production scale can they maintain their competitive advantage in the international market. The number of polysilicon enterprises that China put into production in 2011 is about 40, of which at least 80% of polysilicon production is below 2,000 tons. Polysilicon production is a systematic project, and there is limited space for small businesses to reduce production costs through technological transformation. Therefore, the integration of industrial development is inevitable when the supply and demand imbalance and prices continue to operate at low levels.
Finally, "double high" awareness will still hinder the sustainable development of the industry. In recent years, with the growth of the size of polysilicon enterprises and technological advancement, the production energy consumption has been continuously reduced, the output value of 10,000 yuan GDP has reached the national average, most companies have achieved closed-loop production, silicon tetrachloride and other by-products have also been obtained Effective use, but the "double high" hat did not get off the polysilicon head, its downstream products have also been labeled "a large number of photovoltaic products export is equivalent to a large number of output shortages of energy" argument, making the photovoltaic project approval, technical transformation , Product export, etc. are constrained. It is expected that "double high" awareness will still restrict the development of the industry.
The “birth†and “ice†baptism China's polysilicon supply in the first three quarters of last year was in short supply, and more than half of the companies in the fourth quarter stopped production or reduced production.
In 2011, China’s polycrystalline silicon production capacity reached 120,000 tons, planning and announced the start of construction of a production capacity of 100,000 tons. In 2011, the country’s total polysilicon production was 60,000 tons, an increase of 33% from the 45,000 tons in 2010, and 58 enterprises were declared as first-approved. Into the company 20. Although there are many manufacturers, but the industrial concentration is high, 80% of the production is concentrated in Zhongneng, China Silicon Hi-Tech, LDK, and Chongqing Daquan. The rapid development of domestic polysilicon production companies has broken the international polysilicon industry. China has become the second largest polycrystalline silicon producer in the world after the United States. The world’s top 10 polysilicon companies, China has 3, including Jiangsu Zhongneng, Luoyang Zhongsi and LDK. The new production capacity in 2011 came from technological upgrading and new construction, mainly adopting the improved Siemens production process. With the improvement of technical and operational skills, the safety and environmental protection of various companies have been further improved, and the mainstream technological status has been recognized by the market.
In 2011, domestic polysilicon still fell short of supply. According to statistics, the domestic solar cell production capacity is about 30 GW, and the industrial chain is perfect. If the production capacity is full, the total demand for polysilicon will exceed 200,000 tons. According to customs import data, China's total imports of polysilicon reached 53,019 tons from January to October 2011, and it is expected that the total import volume will exceed 60,000 tons in 2011. The proportion of polysilicon in China is still about 50%.
In 2011, China's polysilicon experienced the "fire" and "ice" baptism. In the first three quarters, the supply of polysilicon was in short supply, and the price rose to a maximum of RMB 750,000 per ton. However, in the fourth quarter, due to the impact of the US financial crisis, especially the European debt crisis, the end market lost its support for funds, and a large amount of photovoltaic products were under pressure. Since September last year, the price of polysilicon raw materials has fallen sharply. Coupled with the massive dumping of low-cost polycrystalline silicon in the United States and South Korea, the price of polysilicon has dropped to as low as 200,000 yuan per ton. More than half of China’s enterprises have stopped production or reduced production, and the entire industry has entered “winterâ€. .
The technology and industry bases have doubled the level of manufacturing of some domestic equipment, and there are many technological upgrading tasks to be done.
China's polysilicon mainstream production process is to improve the Siemens process, a few manufacturers use silane method, but the output is very small. There are four steps to improve the core technology of the Siemens process: preparation and purification of raw materials, reduction, hydrogenation, tail gas recovery and recycling of by-products.
The preparation of raw materials has been able to meet the requirements of polysilicon production. Purification of raw materials generally uses purification towers, such as high-efficiency packed towers, high-efficiency sieve towers, etc., comparable to foreign technologies, but the stability of product quality is directly related to the purification of raw materials. Energy consumption is also related, so there are still some areas for improvement.
Restore technology and equipment, at present, there are 12 pairs of rods, 18 pairs of rods, 24 pairs of rod reduction furnaces and 36 pairs of rods and 48 pairs of rod reduction furnaces that are independently developed in China. The technology has been synchronized with the world and even reached a more advanced level. . The power supply and feeding system of the reduction furnace has Chinese characteristics. The best result of reducing power consumption is 45kWh/kg in China, and the output of single furnace reaches more than 7000kg. The technology and device of imported reducing furnace and digestion and absorption have the same effect.
The core technology of comprehensive utilization of by-products is hydrogenation of silicon tetrachloride. China has high-temperature hydrogenation and low-temperature hydrogenation (hydrochlorination is also attributed to low-temperature hydrogenation). At present, domestic polysilicon enterprises with a capacity of 1,000 tons have hydrogenation technology. High-temperature hydrogenation is limited due to its high power consumption and large-scale production. Currently, low-temperature hydrogenation technology is widely promoted. The hydrogenation conversion rate of this technology is about 20% to 30%. After 4 to 5 cycles of silicon tetrachloride, it can be recycled. All recycling, hydrogenation power consumption has been less than 0.6kWh/kg-TCS, is a key technology to reduce costs and solve environmental problems.
The tail gas dry recovery, the domestic 10,000-ton-scale plants have tail gas dry recovery system. The independent research and development of dry tail gas recovery technology, the processing gas has reached more than 30,000 cubic meters / hour, can be used for more than 10,000 tons of polysilicon production systems. However, the level of domestic equipment manufacturing is uneven, and the difference between large and small plants is huge. There are still many technological upgrading tasks to be done.
In 2011, the implementation of Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements, the first batch of 20 companies to gain access, played a positive role in regulating industry development and reducing investment losses. The cruel reality of the current market also proved the necessity of government regulation and early warning. . In conjunction with market access, the industry has jointly completed the formulation and validation of the National Standard for the “Energy Consumption Limit of Polysilicon Enterprises' Products per Unitâ€. The standard indicators are reasonable, simple and intuitive, easy to operate, and play a role in regulating and guiding the development of the polysilicon industry, advocating energy conservation, emission reduction, and cleaner production. It has a good guiding role for companies to reduce energy consumption and costs.
There is an urgent need to activate the domestic market and increase efforts to start the domestic market and turn the largest PV producer into the largest application country.
The polysilicon industry is a newly developed industry and has received extensive attention from related departments and the media. In 2012, China's polysilicon industry will also face the European debt crisis, the United States "double reverse", the United States and South Korea low-cost dumping, rising domestic electricity prices and other issues, the industry consolidation will further intensify. The industry eagerly hopes that China will expedite the implementation of the “On-grid Electricity Tariff Actâ€, explicitly support the solar photovoltaic power generation industry, increase efforts to start the domestic market, change the largest photovoltaic producer to be the largest application country, and use China’s large number of deserts, Gobi and buildings to install solar photovoltaic systems. Store energy for the future; Support independent research and development of technology, further improve quality and reduce costs; Support the industry in the development of common technology research in the polysilicon industry, including testing methods, various specifications, standards, etc.; Support advantageous enterprises to implement technological transformation or new production capacity ; Priority filing approval.
During the “winter†period, domestic polysilicon companies must firmly believe in the future of the photovoltaic industry, continue to work hard, continuously improve technology, reduce energy consumption, reduce costs, improve self, and unswervingly improve the polysilicon process with Chinese characteristics, improve quality, and enhance The ability of the world’s old polysilicon companies to compete has provided China’s photovoltaic industry with basic raw material support, so that the Chinese PV industry can continue to maintain its international competitiveness. Only in the "winter" does it not fall, will have the opportunity to meet the new "spring."
Expert opinion: Lu Jinping, Vice General Manager, Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd. “2012 is a year of overcapacity in global photovoltaic industry. The integration of polysilicon industry as raw material supply is unstoppable.â€
Polysilicon process technology continued to improve in 2011. For example, in the key technology chlorohydrogenation process, domestic companies have upgraded to the 100,000-tonne 4th-generation hydrogenation technology in 2011, not only converting 100% by-products of silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride, etc. from polysilicon production to trichlorosilane. The raw materials are recycled, and other trace chlorosilane by-products of the polysilicon production process are also used efficiently. Through the large-scale application of 40 pairs of rod efficient energy-saving reduction technologies, polysilicon energy saving and environmental protection manufacturing are achieved.
2012 is the year of excess global PV production capacity. The integration of polysilicon as raw material supply is unstoppable. At the end of 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first list of polysilicon industry access, but only four companies that have become truly global in terms of competitiveness include Jiangsu Zhongneng, LDK Solar, Luoyang Silicon, and Chongqing Daquan. The company's capacity production capacity of over 10,000 tons in 2012 exceeds 100,000 tons, providing quality and cheap polysilicon raw materials for the arrival of the era of parity solar power generation.
In 2012, China’s polysilicon industry was an externally challenging year. With the shift of photovoltaic cell manufacturing to China, polysilicon from the United States and South Korea began dumping large quantities in China in 2011. Recalling the history of polysilicon development, as a national semiconductor material industry for strategic development, China had as many as 20 polysilicon companies in the 1960s and 1970s, but under the technological conditions of developed countries in Europe and America, production energy consumption was high, and the environment Serious pollution leads to high production costs and small industrial scale. In the 1980s, the European and American giants even attacked the Chinese market with sub-costs of $20 to $30 per kilogram of electronic-grade polysilicon. Chinese polysilicon companies were essentially wiped out. By the end of the last century, only one survivor survived the industry research. Emei Semiconductor Research Institute! After the technological breakthrough, China's polysilicon industry needs to treat the trade invasion aggressively!
New Energy observes that the polysilicon industry is facing severe winter Wang Shijiang In 2012, China's polysilicon industry still has a long way to go. On the one hand, companies need to work hard to reduce costs. On the other hand, they need to hold groups to warm up and jointly respond to the winter. At the same time, it is also necessary for the competent authorities to give full play to the regulatory role of the market mechanism, guide industrial integration, and give support to enterprises and technical reforms in terms of policies.
First, the industry will still bear price pressures. According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Union Secretariat, the global PV polysilicon production capacity will reach 440,000 and 540,000 tons respectively from 2012 to 2013. After deducting 40,000 tons of silicon for semiconductors, it can meet the demand for polysilicon cells of 57GW and 71GW, according to EPIA. It is estimated that the installed capacity of the global photovoltaic market in 2012 and 2013 will not exceed 30 GW, so it will continue to bear the pressure of oversupply for a period of time in the future. The majority of polysilicon production capacity in China is released within two years, the production process needs to be optimized, production costs are still higher than foreign companies, and bear the pressure of debt service and other pressures, so foreign polysilicon products and some domestic SMEs cut the blood for winter Under the circumstances, polysilicon prices will continue to operate at low levels for some time to come.
Second, the dependence on imports will continue. First, China's polysilicon production costs are still at a disadvantage compared with foreign advanced polysilicon companies. Second, the production capacity of most polysilicon enterprises in China has just been released, the technology reserves are insufficient, and the stability of the production process and product quality needs to be further improved. Third, China's polysilicon companies are relatively small. Currently, there are only three companies that have already put into production and have a production capacity of 5,000 tons, while the number of major foreign polysilicon companies is more than 10,000 tons. As the domestic downstream large-scale photovoltaic companies have more than 7,000 tons of polysilicon demand each year, suppliers may be more inclined to supply polysilicon companies with strong supply capacity. Fourth, current polysilicon is mainly based on long-term contracts. Major PV companies have already signed long-term agreements with foreign polysilicon companies. Therefore, under the influence of such factors, in the coming years, polysilicon products from abroad will still cause a greater impact on China's polysilicon industry.
Again, mergers and acquisitions will continue. Judging from the development experience of the foreign polysilicon industry, large companies will occupy a dominant position in industrial development. Only through the continuous investment of large companies in technology and production scale can they maintain their competitive advantage in the international market. The number of polysilicon enterprises that China put into production in 2011 is about 40, of which at least 80% of polysilicon production is below 2,000 tons. Polysilicon production is a systematic project, and there is limited space for small businesses to reduce production costs through technological transformation. Therefore, the integration of industrial development is inevitable when the supply and demand imbalance and prices continue to operate at low levels.
Finally, "double high" awareness will still hinder the sustainable development of the industry. In recent years, with the growth of the size of polysilicon enterprises and technological advancement, the production energy consumption has been continuously reduced, the output value of 10,000 yuan GDP has reached the national average, most companies have achieved closed-loop production, silicon tetrachloride and other by-products have also been obtained Effective use, but the "double high" hat did not get off the polysilicon head, its downstream products have also been labeled "a large number of photovoltaic products export is equivalent to a large number of output shortages of energy" argument, making the photovoltaic project approval, technical transformation , Product export, etc. are constrained. It is expected that "double high" awareness will still restrict the development of the industry.
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