“One Belt, One Road” has become the second largest trading sector in the world

Abstract The "Band I All Road Trade and Investment Index (BRTII)" (hereinafter referred to as BRTII) report was released in Beijing on May 7. The report analyzes 41 sample countries from 2012 to 2017, and from the four dimensions of scale, facilitation, risk and potential,...

The "Belt and Road" Trade and Investment Index (BRTII) (hereinafter referred to as BRTII) report was released in Beijing on May 7. The report analyzes and analyzes 41 sample countries from 2012 to 2017, and comprehensively evaluates the trade, investment development and future trends of countries along the “Belt and Road” from the four dimensions of scale, facilitation, risk and potential. Quantitative Analysis. The report shows that the “One Belt, One Road” internal trade has increased significantly in the total global trade, reaching 13.4% in 2017, and its internal trade volume is equivalent to 65% of the EU's internal trade volume.

Professor Hong Junjie, Minister of Economics of the University of International Business and Economics and Dean of the School of International Economics and Trade, said: "After the calculation, we found that from the scale of internal trade, countries and regions along the 'Belt and Road' have become the world's second largest trade after the EU. In the sector, the flow of foreign capital has risen against the trend, and the interconnection dividend has gradually emerged. It can be expected that the area along the “Belt and Road” will continue to be a new bright spot for future global economic and trade growth.”

The “Building the Belt and Road Initiative” initiative originated in China, but the opportunities and achievements belong to the world. At present, 127 countries and 29 international organizations have signed various forms of 'One Belt and One Road' cooperation documents with China.” China International Economic Exchange Chen Wenling, the chief economist of the center, said: "The smooth flow of trade and investment is a powerful driving force for the development of the world economy. By promoting the promotion of the 'One Belt, One Road' trade and investment facilitation level, reducing the comprehensive cost of interconnection of soft and hard facilities, as well as transaction costs and business costs. Will greatly enhance the breadth and depth of economic globalization of participating countries."

The BRTII study found that since the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative, trade links within the countries along the line have become closer and closer, and global trade participation has steadily increased. In 2017, trade participation reached 55.2%. From the perspective of trade patterns, the trade in intermediate goods has become the main form of regional trade in the “Belt and Road”. In 2017, the “Belt and Road” intermediate trade accounted for 61.0% of intra-regional trade.

According to BRTII results, the total imports of Chinese intermediates in 2017 was US$943.12 billion, of which US$302.31 billion was imported from countries along the “Belt and Road”. China's huge market demand has greatly promoted the trade growth of the “Belt and Road” countries.

In recent years, countries along the “Belt and Road” have become increasingly prominent in global investment, and cross-border capital growth is much higher than in other regions. In 2017, the total foreign direct investment and foreign investment attracted by countries and regions along the “Belt and Road” reached US$155.4 billion and US$323.7 billion, respectively, up 27.3% and 2.1% year-on-year respectively. It has become the world's most important foreign capital inflow, with 31.6%. The proportion is more than 23.0% of the North American Free Trade Zone and 21.2% of the European Union. In particular, some major project investments have greatly enhanced the host country's ability to sustainably develop.

Whether it is FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) or ODI (Overseas Direct Investment), China is the largest country in the “Belt and Road” cross-border capital flows. China has achieved a net outflow of foreign direct investment since 2015, and has become the largest net foreign capital outflow country of the “Belt and Road” for years.

The report believes that the huge Chinese market will be a new driving force for the continued economic growth of countries along the “Belt and Road”. At the same time, however, although the relevant trade and investment risks have shown a steady downward trend, the existence of structural risks has constrained the release of development and cooperation potential. The results of the index evaluation show that the trade transactions of the countries along the “Belt and Road” are highly volatile, which is not conducive to promoting the smooth flow of “One Belt, One Road” trade.

The BRTII study predicts that the “One Belt, One Road” is expected to become one of the new global trade and investment growth centers in the future, but it also needs to strengthen trade and investment facilitation, make up for insufficient infrastructure investment, enhance value chain cooperation, and narrow regional imbalances. global cooperation.

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