Due to the April economic data, suggesting that the steady growth task is arduous, the central bank announced on Saturday that it lowered the bank deposit rate, which was the second time in the year. Affected by this, yesterday (May 14) the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar and the domestic spot market closing price have declined to varying degrees, the middle price fell to a new low since April 20, and yesterday's immediate closing hit the biggest decline in four weeks. It is worth noting that because of China's weak economic growth, some economists interviewed by the Daily Economic News recently lowered their expectations for the yuan's rise in the year, from 2% to 1.5%. Closing the biggest decline in four weeks The central bank cut the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar by 0.14% to 6.3040 yesterday, falling for four consecutive trading days, and hitting the lowest level since April 20 this year. The intraday price was lower than the middle price. Yesterday's spot market closed at 6.3215, down 0.17%, the biggest drop since April 16. Last week's data showed that China's industrial added value increased by 9.3% in April, the lowest increase since May 2009. China's exports in April increased by 4.9% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. In addition, China's investment, new credit and retail sales were lower than expected in April, and imports were close to zero growth, indicating that domestic demand was sluggish while domestic demand was sluggish, dragging down the Chinese economy still operating in a downward trend. On Saturday (May 12), the central bank announced that it would cut the bank deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. Zhou Hao, an economist at ANZ, believes that the RRR cut will increase the liquidity of the Chinese banking system by about 400 billion yuan. Goldman Sachs economist Song Yu also believes that about 450 billion yuan will be released. At present, the market interprets China's downward adjustment of the deposit rate as China's economic growth slowdown is more serious than expected, but also speculates that Greece may exit the euro zone, so that the euro fell below the 60-day moving average support, the lowest yesterday was 1.2859. It is the new low since January 23 this year. The US dollar index was up to 80.598 due to safe-haven buying, the highest since March 15 this year. “The RRR cut is a bit late because China’s economic growth rate is lower than expected,†said TommyOng, senior vice president of finance and marketing at DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited. "Unless investors see a clear trend of China's economy to achieve the 7.5% growth target, the renminbi will remain weak." At 16:34 Beijing time yesterday, Hong Kong offshore market, the yuan fell 0.12% against the US dollar, reported 6.3208 yuan, a record The lowest level since March 30 this year. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar for 12 months fell 0.27% to 6.3740 yuan, which was 0.9% lower than the domestic spot exchange rate, setting the biggest discount since January 2. Based on the closing price, the RMB has been trading at 0.5% against the US dollar since 2012 and depreciated at 0.2% at the mid-point. Since the central bank announced the resumption of the exchange rate reform on June 19, 2010, the renminbi has appreciated 7.5% against the US dollar. The central bank also expanded the intraday volatility ceiling from 5‰ to 1% from April 16 this year and allowed banks to short the US dollar. Or 1.5% during the year edged worth noting that the "Daily Economic News" reporter interviewed economists and traders recently lowered the expected appreciation of the yuan during the year, down from 2% to 1.5%. A foreign exchange trader from a bank in East China told reporters that the RMB has little room for appreciation during the year. From recent data, the economy is weak and the pressure to maintain growth has increased. It is expected that the spot RMB central price will follow the trend of the overnight US dollar. The intraday trading price will be in line with the spot price of the Hong Kong CNH, and the spread will narrow. Wang Zhihao, a Chinese economist at Standard Chartered Bank, told reporters that China’s trade surplus in 2012 will increase again, maintaining the view that the yuan is stronger, and predicting its appreciation of about 1.5% this year. Although the government is worried about hot money inflows and worried about the outflow of hot money, the central bank should maintain the expectation of onshore RMB appreciation. The Standard Chartered Bank report predicts that a current account surplus of 2% will make the valuation of the RMB more reasonable, but the capital account surplus will still put pressure on the appreciation of the RMB. In the first quarter, the central bank may buy $75 billion in foreign exchange reserves through over-the-counter trading, averaging $1.25 billion per trading day. The report also shows that from the fourth quarter of 2011, the scale of RMB trade settlement has begun to rebound. According to the SWIFT system, as of February 2012, an average of 6.6% of payments between Mainland China and Hong Kong and other Asian economies were in RMB. Xing Weijing, secretary general of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said recently that the central bank will actively and steadily push the renminbi “going outâ€, including setting up funds specializing in overseas loans and investments to promote renminbi overseas loans and investment. And further relax the relevant policies of individual RMB business in a timely manner, and the cross-border movement of individual RMB will be more convenient.
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