**The market repeats the downturn

After the National Day, the domestic ** market is once again in the doldrums. Shandong's low-end factory price is only 180 yuan (ton price, the same below), Shanxi factory price is 200 to 300 yuan, and Hebei's mainstream factory price is also maintained at 350 to 450 yuan. In late September, the ** market that had warmed up came to an abrupt end. The reliance on centralized maintenance of the devices caused a short supply of short supply and formed a rebound. The underlying information was not sufficient and was unsustainable. From the market analysis, the ** market is unlikely to shake off the downturn in the short term, and the market is not optimistic.

First, the downstream demand is insufficient and the market for chlorine-consuming products is sluggish. As far as the downstream market is concerned, the main product of chlorine-consuming PVC products has nowhere to go. The downstream plate processing enterprises are underemployed, and some small and medium-sized enterprises are shut down or shut down, which has aggravated PVC demand; other chlorine-consuming products, such as chlorinated paraffin and chlorine The start-up load of acetic acid and other industries is also insufficient, and the demand is generally in order to mainly use with the use. The demand situation can not be improved, it is difficult to completely change the market.

Second, the starting load of the chlor-alkali plant increased, and the amount of goods in the market increased. Caustic soda** is a co-product and belongs to this relationship. Recently, the caustic soda market basically continued its early trend, and the market price showed a steady upward trend. Chlor-alkali enterprises started to work under heavy load, and the supply of goods in the market was large. It is also expected that there will be 3 million tons/year of new chlor-alkali capacity release in the second half of the year, and the fourth quarter will be the period for new production capacity to be released. The direct cause of this round of price fall in Shandong ** was the recovery of the start-up load of local caustic soda enterprises and the release of new investment capacity.

Third, the economic environment is not good. With the slowdown of economic growth in the United States, the deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis, the lack of demand for crude oil, the situation in Libya has gradually eased, Libya’s oil production is recovering, and international crude oil prices fluctuate. On October 4, WTI crude oil prices fell to US$75.7 per barrel. , a record low during the year. Although it rebounded afterwards, the market’s worry about the second bottom of the European and American economy has not been completely eliminated. International crude oil prices fell, domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened, the National Development and Reform Commission decided to start from October 9 to cut gasoline and diesel prices 300 yuan / ton, product transportation costs will decline. These are not conducive to strong market conditions.

Fourth, chemical gold nine silver and ten market conditions are insufficient. The recent decline in commodity prices, chemical products market is not ideal. The high hopes of the gold nine market have been frustrated, since mid-September, the chemical market fell more or less, rubber and plastic products did not rise fell, most of the inorganic chemicals are also in the doldrums. For the silver market, there must not be too high expectations. From the current demand situation and other factors, the chemical industry in the fourth quarter is expected to have a higher probability of a general decline, and ** prices will inevitably be affected.

In general, if there are no major positives, the overall market will continue its downward trend. However, the current price of ** has been at a very low price, there is little room for further decline, low-stable operation will be the main theme of the market outlook.