Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and President of China Nonferrous Metal Processing Industry Association, the People's Liberation Army, attended the 2012 Aluminum Industry Chain Forum organized by Shanghai Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. on the 23rd. During the period of the development trend of aluminum exports in China made a speech as the subject and was warmly welcomed by the participants.
The literature army said in the speech that China's aluminum processing industry in 2011 had a trend of high, low, high, and maintained high-speed growth in the first two quarters. In the third quarter, orders were insufficient, and the rate of decline was increasingly evident. The operating rate of enterprises reached more than 85% in the first eight months and then declined. In particular, the operating rate of some enterprises in the fourth quarter fell to about 50%. The annual output was 23.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.58%.
He also said that the transportation industry is the second largest consumer of aluminum and will also be China's fastest growing aluminum consumption industry. Transportation aluminum consumption in 2012 will reach about 550,000 tons, an increase of about 13.5%.
He said that the domestic aluminum production costs are basically not competitive. According to data released by Brookhunt in the fourth quarter of 2011, the cash costs of Rio Tinto Alcan, Rusal, Hydro, Alcoa and Chinalco were 1872, 1887, 1993, 2159 and 2241 U.S. dollars per ton, respectively. In 2012 China's electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang will not be supplied to the Mainland. With the support of production costs, the domestic aluminum price fell in 2012 with limited space; under the circumstances of global oversupply, there will not be much room for domestic aluminum prices to rise. In general, domestic aluminum prices are basically the same as international aluminum prices, and the monthly decline in exports of aluminum materials can be curbed, but it is difficult to recover the growth rate to the previous level.
He said that the trade frictions that China's aluminum products have encountered in the international market are the largest in the entire non-ferrous metals industry. He believes that the most important factor affecting aluminum exports this year is the ratio of aluminum prices at home and abroad. It is expected that the export situation of aluminum products in China will not be optimistic in 2012, and the export volume will remain at the level of 2011 or slightly increase.
He pointed out that China's 2012 aluminum export policy is not expected to have much adjustment, and trade frictions will become the norm. We pay close attention to the response of some US companies to China's exports to the United States aluminum sheet. We emphasize cooperation and fair trade. With the changes in the aluminum price ratio between the Chinese market and the international market, when the domestic aluminum price is higher than the international aluminum price, the international trade friction case will be lower than in previous years. In 2012, China's aluminum production will further increase, but the increase will decline. Aluminum consumption in the transportation sector will increase significantly. The main factor influencing the export of aluminum is the price of aluminum at home and abroad. It is expected that the export situation of aluminum products in China will not be optimistic in 2012 (sales volume in January decreased by 8.83% year-on-year and 4.82% month-on-month), and the export volume will maintain at the 2011 level or slightly increase.
Finally, he said that China's aluminum output will further increase in 2012, but the increase will decline. Aluminum consumption in the transportation sector will increase significantly. China With the advancement of aluminum processing equipment and technology in China, the quality and grade of aluminum products in China are also constantly improving. The proportion of high-precision aluminum strips, aluminum foils, and large-scale industrial aluminum extrusions in exports continues to increase, and the export structure of aluminum in China is constantly changing. Except for aviation pre-stretching plates, chemically formed aluminum foils and other products that still cannot meet domestic demand, the cost performance ratio of other aluminum processed wood products is still competitive in the international market.
The literature army said in the speech that China's aluminum processing industry in 2011 had a trend of high, low, high, and maintained high-speed growth in the first two quarters. In the third quarter, orders were insufficient, and the rate of decline was increasingly evident. The operating rate of enterprises reached more than 85% in the first eight months and then declined. In particular, the operating rate of some enterprises in the fourth quarter fell to about 50%. The annual output was 23.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.58%.
He also said that the transportation industry is the second largest consumer of aluminum and will also be China's fastest growing aluminum consumption industry. Transportation aluminum consumption in 2012 will reach about 550,000 tons, an increase of about 13.5%.
He said that the domestic aluminum production costs are basically not competitive. According to data released by Brookhunt in the fourth quarter of 2011, the cash costs of Rio Tinto Alcan, Rusal, Hydro, Alcoa and Chinalco were 1872, 1887, 1993, 2159 and 2241 U.S. dollars per ton, respectively. In 2012 China's electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang will not be supplied to the Mainland. With the support of production costs, the domestic aluminum price fell in 2012 with limited space; under the circumstances of global oversupply, there will not be much room for domestic aluminum prices to rise. In general, domestic aluminum prices are basically the same as international aluminum prices, and the monthly decline in exports of aluminum materials can be curbed, but it is difficult to recover the growth rate to the previous level.
He said that the trade frictions that China's aluminum products have encountered in the international market are the largest in the entire non-ferrous metals industry. He believes that the most important factor affecting aluminum exports this year is the ratio of aluminum prices at home and abroad. It is expected that the export situation of aluminum products in China will not be optimistic in 2012, and the export volume will remain at the level of 2011 or slightly increase.
He pointed out that China's 2012 aluminum export policy is not expected to have much adjustment, and trade frictions will become the norm. We pay close attention to the response of some US companies to China's exports to the United States aluminum sheet. We emphasize cooperation and fair trade. With the changes in the aluminum price ratio between the Chinese market and the international market, when the domestic aluminum price is higher than the international aluminum price, the international trade friction case will be lower than in previous years. In 2012, China's aluminum production will further increase, but the increase will decline. Aluminum consumption in the transportation sector will increase significantly. The main factor influencing the export of aluminum is the price of aluminum at home and abroad. It is expected that the export situation of aluminum products in China will not be optimistic in 2012 (sales volume in January decreased by 8.83% year-on-year and 4.82% month-on-month), and the export volume will maintain at the 2011 level or slightly increase.
Finally, he said that China's aluminum output will further increase in 2012, but the increase will decline. Aluminum consumption in the transportation sector will increase significantly. China With the advancement of aluminum processing equipment and technology in China, the quality and grade of aluminum products in China are also constantly improving. The proportion of high-precision aluminum strips, aluminum foils, and large-scale industrial aluminum extrusions in exports continues to increase, and the export structure of aluminum in China is constantly changing. Except for aviation pre-stretching plates, chemically formed aluminum foils and other products that still cannot meet domestic demand, the cost performance ratio of other aluminum processed wood products is still competitive in the international market.
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