Shanghai aluminum price short-selling

Last week, the Shanghai aluminum main contract AL0508 rushed to 17,100 yuan / ton in the vicinity of strong sell-out, the price fell along the way, in the fall to 16,600 yuan / ton began to show signs of stabilization, this week Shanghai aluminum main contract AL0508 opened slightly higher, The whole day oscillated between 16660 and 16710 yuan/ton, and closed at 16680 yuan/ton, down by 10 yuan/ton. China’s recent introduction of new policies has increased the number of companies with alumina import qualifications from 8 to 20, which will, to a certain extent, reduce the import costs of alumina. More importantly, this is considered by the market as a later stage to be introduced. Strict measures to limit the export of aluminum ingots are a signal that market rumors will cancel the preferential treatment of alumina processing, which spread the panic atmosphere, and thus aluminum prices have fallen more. As inventory is still low, as of last Friday, Shanghai Stock Exchange had only 28,544 tons of stocks. At the same time, due to floods in the south, transportation was not smooth, aluminum ingots did not increase, and smelters reluctantly sold goods, so spot aluminum prices began to take off. stable. From the perspective of domestic demand, due to the advent of summer, major consumption areas for aluminum such as Guangdong and Shanghai have begun to take measures to limit electricity consumption. At present, aluminum consumers still have a certain amount of inventory, so their wait-and-see attitude is relatively strong, and the procurement of aluminum profile factories is reduced. Moreover, after the aluminum market will enter the off-season consumption period after July, aluminum demand will slow down in the near future. In terms of imports and exports of aluminum, the export volume in May increased significantly from April, with 142,280 tons of primary aluminum exports and 114,486 tons of net exports. This is mainly due to concerns that the management department will cancel the tariff concession for alumina processing trade soon. Domestic exports have increased. However, due to the sharp decline in LME aluminum prices, the current domestic and international parity has made feed processing trade almost unprofitable. Therefore, China's aluminum exports will gradually shrink in the latter half of the year, and domestic aluminum ingot supply will be more abundant in the second half of the year. In summary, due to the short-term supply and low inventory, Shanghai aluminum prices will temporarily gain some support, but due to the onset of the off-season and the impact of lower exports in the later period, Shanghai aluminum future trend is not optimistic. Operationally, investors are advised to pay close attention to the spot market and changes in inventory, and take the opportunity to sell short. Excerpts: Morning News/Liu Huiyuan

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