Manufacturing is the "backbone" of China's national economy, and it is also a key factor affecting the direction of the real economy. During the Summer Davos Forum held in Tianjin on the 12th, many Chinese and foreign experts said that China’s manufacturing industry is currently facing an increase due to the downturn in the global macroeconomic situation, the low level of repeated construction in the domestic manufacturing industry, and the increase in costs caused by corporate outflows. The rapid decline and the slowdown in demand are unlikely to change in the short term. The growth rate of the manufacturing industry has been difficult to “winterâ€. In the past August, China’s manufacturing enterprises have still not got rid of the “winter†dilemma. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, which is the first time since November last year that the index fell below 50%, hitting a nine-month low. This data reflects that the downward pressure on China's economy is still relatively large, and the manufacturing industry is in an overall contraction state. Not only China, India's PMI hit its lowest level in nine months, and Japan hit its lowest level since April 2011. The manufacturing sector in the Eurozone further shrank in August, with a manufacturing PMI down to 45.1% and a manufacturing PMI of less than 50% in the core countries of the Eurozone. Tan Bingwen, managing director of the Canadian Aluminum Group of Rio Tinto Group, believes that the manufacturing downturn has become a global trend and there is no sign of recovery in the short term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Academy of Social Sciences released the "First Half of China's Industrial Economics Report 2012" released earlier this month. In the first half of the year, the production of raw materials, including steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and chemicals, continued to be worrisome. It is highlighted that some industries are even on the verge of an overall loss in the industry. The equipment manufacturing industry has entered an unprecedented downturn, with as much as one-third of the main products producing different degrees of decline year-on-year. Overall, most of the manufacturing growth rate has declined to varying degrees year-on-year since the beginning of this year. During the Davos Forum, some of the companies surveyed also revealed helplessness. Xu Heyi, chairman of BAIC Group, said that the upcoming "third industrial revolution" and the re-industrialization of developed countries have created a strong challenge to China's manufacturing industry. Taking the automobile industry as an example, the joint venture brand still dominates, and the self-owned brands accounted for a slight decline in the previous two years. The problem of hollowing out technology in China's manufacturing industry has become the biggest risk. Like a car gearbox, China's technology in this field is almost zero. He also said that the current downturn in some enterprises in the coastal areas is mainly due to the international market. Most of these enterprises are export-oriented, and the products are mainly exported. The coastal enterprises and industries are currently shifting to the central and western regions. This is also a trend, but the key is to see where the products and markets of this enterprise are. If transferred to the Midwest, logistics and decision-making costs are greatly increased, and labor costs are only slightly reduced, then the overall cost is not necessarily competitive. Luo Jun, CEO of the Asian Manufacturing Association, believes that the internal environment of China's manufacturing industry is not worse than that of previous years. On the contrary, with the deepening of domestic demand expansion, many rules of the 12th Five-Year Plan have been introduced one after another, which should bring new Chinese economy. A round of rise, but limited effect under the influence of the continued deterioration of the external environment. In the past, the difficulties in China's manufacturing industry were mainly based on the pressure of resources and the environment and the elimination of backward production capacity. The international export situation is basically not as sudden and concentrated as this year. Two major domestic factors have caused China's manufacturing industry to be in trouble. Davos experts concluded that the unprecedented pressure on China's manufacturing industry is also inseparable from domestic factors: First, with the end of the era of low production factors in China, the outflow of manufacturing Impact on the market structure. The era of China's manufacturing industry relying on low cost of manpower and land is no longer an era. According to statistics, from 1998 to 2008, the profits of industrial enterprises in China increased by an average of 30.5%, and the average annual labor force increased by only 9.9%. The rise in labor costs has become an inevitable trend. Lin Yu, chairman of NetQin Mobile Co., Ltd. said that according to his observation, the labor cost of Beijing white-collar workers is almost the same as that of Taipei. The monthly salary is mostly above 10,000 yuan, which does not include social security expenditure. Labor costs account for almost half of the company's total cost. The era of China’s demographic dividend that has lasted for decades has passed. Luo Jun said that after the world financial crisis, European and American countries re-recognizing the importance of the real economy, and successively put forward the slogan of "returning to the era of manufacturing", mainly because the proportion of manufacturing in Europe and the United States in the country has fallen sharply, and a large number of manufacturing companies have Factories and R&D bases have been built overseas, causing a large number of industrial workers to lose their jobs. Starbucks, Ford Motor, Caterpillar, Garton and other companies that have set up factories in China have chosen to move some or all of their production capacity back to the United States. At the same time, some manufacturing outflows have shifted to emerging economies with lower costs, and competition with China has made it a trend for multinational companies to shift their production capacity from China to Southeast Asia. In the case of Adidas, it closed the only factory in China that was located in Suzhou, and instead transferred to Southeast Asia, where wages are only about one-third of Chinese workers. Second, the industry has been operating at a low level for a long time, and industry profits have been squeezed by low-end and repeated production capacity. Yu Qianmin, chairman of Tianjin Port Group, said that China's manufacturing industry is in the middle and lower reaches of the world's manufacturing industry chain. Most of the manufactured products are low in technical content, low in added value, and low in price. They are at a disadvantage in the distribution of international trade benefits. The "third industrial revolution" has become a hot topic in the near future. Some foreign scholars believe that China will fall behind in the "third industrial revolution", and Europe and the United States will once again dominate the global economic development. The reason is that Europe and the United States attach great importance to the research and development and application of green energy and renewable energy. China does not pay enough attention to this aspect. Luo Jun said that China's manufacturing industry relies heavily on traditional energy sources, but its energy efficiency is only one tenth of that of the United States. This situation is indeed grim. The short-term difficulty in improving the manufacturing industry From the perspective of the domestic and international development environment, the current situation facing China's manufacturing industry is more complicated than the 2008 international financial crisis. The shrinking of external demand and the slowdown in domestic demand growth have led to an increase in downward pressure on manufacturing. Luo Jun believes that with the economic downturn in Europe and the United States and the weak global economic growth, China's manufacturing export situation will remain grim. Foreign trade growth is expected to be around 10% this year, compared to 22.5% last year. Xie Baiman, Chairman and CEO of Royal DSM Group of the Netherlands, said that although low cost has long been the strength of China's manufacturing industry, China will inevitably enter the stage of innovation and development, and the development and innovation of science and technology is the most important. of. “In the foreseeable years, low-cost labor-intensive development will continue, but it will gradually move toward green and energy-saving. These have already been found in Japan, Europe, and the United States.†Director of the French Lehman-Nissan Alliance Long and CEO Carlos Ghosn said that the traditional advantages of China's manufacturing industry are facing challenges. For example, the total cost of production in China's auto industry is higher than in Mexico, Southeast Asia and other regions. He also said that there are many creative manufacturing technologies in Europe, but they are not implemented. If China can combine technology with implementation, then there is no need to worry about productivity. With the continuation of energy pressure and the approach of the “third industrial revolutionâ€, experts generally believe that manufacturing will increasingly integrate with information technology, and intelligence becomes more and more important. In addition, the manufacturing industry will have higher and higher requirements for green development. From design, consumption to remanufacturing, we must follow the green concept, especially to promote energy-saving products, energy-saving technologies, energy-saving technologies, and promote low-carbon and circular economy. Under the influence of the new industrial revolution, the return of manufacturing will reshape the country's competitiveness and become an important export for social issues such as employment and environmental improvement.
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