Copper ETF launches further rise in copper prices

The industry believes that under the forecast of the shortage of fundamentals in 2011, the introduction of non-ferrous metals ETF is increasing the tension of copper in 2011. Under this background, the upward trend of copper prices is still difficult to change.

December 9 reported that since the end of November, the strong momentum of copper prices has begun to emerge, and began to rise as the dollar rebounded. Market analysts believe that from the analysis of multiple factors at home and abroad, the continued rise in copper prices has basically become a foregone conclusion.

The strong copper price has already emerged at the end of November. Although the US dollar keeps rebounding, the price of copper has been “unmoved”. The London Metal Exchange (LME) has steadily transferred 8,000 US dollars in copper prices for three months, and domestically held 62,000 yuan. With the end of the dollar's rebound, copper prices also launched an offensive, and it is particularly worth mentioning that three months of LME copper this week has once again challenged historical highs, and domestic copper prices have also risen to around 67,000 yuan. From the analysis, the liquidity of the developed countries, China's macroeconomic policy has not been completely shifted, copper fundamentals are positive, and the involvement of the ETF** has given support to copper prices.

European and American countries added liquidity to support the rise in copper prices The Fed announced on December 3 that it will further purchase 600 billion U.S. dollars of longer-term U.S. public debt, including the Fed’s existing plans to repay funds for repayment of expired funds. By the end of the second quarter of 2011, the Fed is expected to purchase 850 billion to 900 billion U.S. dollars of public debt, which will once again ignite the flame of excess liquidity. However, this is not the end. On December 10, when the employment data released by the United States was not as expected, and the unemployment rate has risen again, the Fed **Bernanke said that it is still possible to expand the scale of 600 billion yuan, that is, the so-called three-degree easing.

Not only the United States, the European Central Bank has joined the ranks of continuing easing in the absence of liquidity. On December 2, the European Central Bank announced that it had delayed the withdrawal of unrestricted emergency liquidity support measures for the banking industry. The Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet stated at the press conference that the European Central Bank will use fixed interest rates before the first quarter of 2011. The full allocation method will be followed by a three-month re-operation. This operation, which should have expired in early 2011, will continue for an additional 3 months and 10 days until April 12, 2011.

According to the analysis of the Galaxy, countries such as Europe and the United States are still providing liquidity to the market in order to maintain sustained economic growth, which has provided support for copper prices both in terms of consumption and liquidity.

China's monetary policy is solid and favorable for copper prices.** The Politburo meeting set the monetary policy for 2011 as “robust”, far better than the market’s expectation of “moderate tightness”, which in fact shows the attitude of the government, ie, 2011 Policies will still be balanced in terms of stabilizing economic growth, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation, and policies will not be completely shifted. Because the current international environment is still unclear, the employment situation in the United States is not good, and economic growth is lower than normal, Europe is still in a sovereign debt crisis; from the domestic point of view, China has launched many new projects in the past two years, with a period of more than three years. In the above, the monetary policy will come out of nowhere, and 2011 will be the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. There are many projects to be started all over the country. Therefore, China’s current macroeconomic policies will not be completely shifted. From 1998 to 2007, China’s monetary policy is stable, which is different from the tightening in 2008. The monetary growth of 15% means that China’s monetary policy has returned to normal. In the current situation where China’s money stock is still large, the policy is still There is room for it. In addition, the latest deployment of the Politburo meeting showed that active fiscal policy will continue in 2011, so the current macroeconomic policy has not completely shifted. Considering that China still has to stabilize its economic growth, it will not make a hard landing for the economy, which will surely eat up the price of copper.

Supply shortages The fundamentals of global copper tension From the fundamental point of view, the recent sharp reduction in stocks in the three places has aroused market concern, the market is worried that the future supply of copper will be more intense. Because from the current statistics, the new production capacity of copper mines in 2011 is limited, and the increase of copper production is only about 1%, which is far below the average increase of 2.8% in the past 20 years.

Due to the limitation of copper production capacity, the growth of refined copper production in 2011 will only be about 1%, while the increase in copper consumption will be above 3%. Therefore, there will be a supply gap of 400,000 tons to 500,000 tons in 2011. It is worth noting that in the beginning of December, the LME copper market experienced a surge in water, and the spot once reached 60 US dollars. It is reported that 50% to 80% of LME copper stocks are controlled by a company. According to the latest news, the company is JP Morgan Chase, recalling that in mid-October, including JP Morgan Chase, there were three investment banks or applications to establish a colored ETF, and future copper. Supply will be more intense due to investment demand.

Returning to the domestic point of view, China’s copper has an external dependence of more than 70%. From the perspective of this year’s imports, China’s imports of refined copper have decreased by 10%, and imports of scrap copper have only increased by 8.6%. The actual situation of the industry’s understanding is declining. The import growth of concentrates was only 5.9%, far below the 18% last year. It can be seen that China's imports this year are limited, mainly in stockpiling.

From the perspective of consumption, the national “12th Five-Year Plan” shows that domestic consumption will continue to grow. This includes the State Grid’s investment of 2 trillion yuan, an average of 400 billion yuan per year, which is much higher than the investment plan of 2270 yuan this year; China is currently The 10,000-km high-speed railway will be built, and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will increase 40,000 kilometers; the capacity of the “Twelfth Five-Year” automobile will double; the number of affordable housing will reach 10 million in 2011, an increase of 78%, and will double every year thereafter.

However, since September, China’s import environment has been deteriorating. The current import loss has exceeded 400 billion yuan. The extremely harsh environment makes it difficult for imports to proceed. Domestic traders are rarely priced, so if domestic stocks are digested in the future, then China’s compensation will be insufficient. The library will provide support for copper prices.

To sum up, China's control of inflation will take into account stable economic growth. The developed countries are still increasing liquidity. With the support of fundamentals, the rising trend of copper has not changed. It is particularly worth noting that under the forecast of the shortage of fundamentals in 2011, the introduction of the non-ferrous metal ETF is increasing the degree of copper tension in 2011, which has become a direct driving force for copper prices to hit new highs at the end of the year. In this context, I believe that the upward trend of copper prices is still difficult to change, and copper will remain the main investment target in the future.