Iron and steel industry rebounds steadily

The overall operation of the industry has been stable This year, the overall operation of the steel industry has been relatively stable. According to Luo Baihui, head of the International Die and Metals and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, under the influence of factors such as the overall investment level in our country is still at a high level and the world economy is gradually improving, the steel production capacity is released faster, product prices continue to rise, and product exports have picked up. At the same time, the cash flow has improved. At the same time, due to factors such as rising iron ore prices and supply and demand in the market, the profitability of the steel industry has been compressed, and the losses and losses of steel companies have all increased. Steel companies are cautious about investment and employment.

The index of China's steel industry in the first quarter of 2011 was 100.3 points, a slight decrease of 0.5 points from the previous quarter; the early warning index of the China Steel Industry was 96.7 points, which was a 3.4 point increase from the previous quarter. It is expected to be closer to the “Green Light District” centerline. In the second quarter of 2011, the trend of moderate growth continued to be maintained, and the structural needs of steel products still need to be resolved. Based on this, Luo Baihui believes that the current opportunities and challenges facing the steel industry coexist. On the one hand, as an important basic industry, the steel industry still has great development opportunities in the process of promoting industrialization and urbanization in China. Since the beginning of this year, China’s overall economic situation has been good. The continuous growth of the downstream manufacturing industries such as construction, machinery, transportation, household appliances, and shipbuilding has been used in the steel industry to provide the steel industry with a market space and confidence in the development of enterprises has increased. On the other hand, under the impetus of the “12th Five-Year Plan” economic transformation work, the pace of domestic economic restructuring will accelerate and the intensity of steel consumption will decline. As the price of bulk raw fuel continues to rise, the cost of steel production continues to increase, and corporate profitability is facing a severe test.

The stable trend of industry enterprises is obviously booming: In the first quarter of 2011, the economic index of the China Steel Industry was 100.3 points (2000 growth level = 100), slightly down 0.5 points from the previous quarter. The trend of the China Steel Industry Business Climate Index is still fluctuating slightly.

Among the six indexes that constitute the China Steel Industry Index (excluding seasonal factors and random factors), the total tax revenue of the steel industry has risen. The sales revenue of products, exports, total profits, total investment in fixed assets, and number of employees The growth rate of other indicators has come down to varying degrees. After further removing random factors, the China Steel Economics Index was 100.2 points, down 0.9 points from the previous quarter, and slightly lower than the prosperity index without removing random factors. This indicates that investment in affordable housing and high-speed railway construction will increase. This quarter has played a positive role in stabilizing the China Steel Industry's economic prosperity index.

Early warning: In the first quarter of 2011, the warning index of the China Steel Industry was 96.7 points, which was 3.4 points higher than the previous quarter, and it moved closer to the “Green Light District” centerline. This shows that under the guidance of policy guidance and market reversal mechanism, the steel industry actively adapts to market changes, intensifies adjustment efforts, explores development paths that are in line with reality, and presents a gradual steady state trend, and there is still some room for recovery.

LED: In the first quarter of 2011, among the 10 indicators (excluding seasonal factors, leaving random factors) that constitute the early warning index for the China Steel Industry, there is one indicator in the “Yellow Light District”—the manufacturer of steel industry is leaving the factory. The price index; there are 7 indicators in the "green light zone" - steel export volume, steel industry product sales revenue, steel industry tax total, steel industry profit composition index, steel industry employees, steel industry accounts receivable (reversal ) and the iron and steel industry finished product capital occupation (reversal); located in the "light blue light area" there are two indicators - the total output of crude steel and steel industry fixed assets investment.

Demand is booming Production and sales rebound Production: low rebound In the quarter, driven by China's rapid growth in investment in fixed assets, demand in the steel market was relatively strong, and production and sales of the steel industry rebounded. After preliminary seasonal adjustments, China's crude steel production in the first quarter of 2011 was 19,975,000 tons, an increase of 11.0% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate was 9.0 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter; it was a 30.0% increase from the previous quarter and was down 3.4% from the previous quarter.

Sales: Accelerating the growth The sales revenue of China's steel industry in the first quarter of 2011 was 162.972 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%, and the growth rate was 12.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter; this was a 14.7% increase from the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 14.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

Inventories: Growth accelerated In the first quarter of 2011, for the preparation of large-area stockpiles after the Spring Festival, there was a clear trend of inventory restocking before the holiday; in addition, this year is the year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, and steel demand is expected to increase further. Continuing with the expected increase in steel prices, the growth of finished steel products in the steel industry has continued.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2011, the iron and steel industry's total investment in finished products was 21,155.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, and the growth rate was 6.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

Exports: Some pick-ups As the U.S. economic recovery gradually accelerates, international steel prices continue to rise, and the domestic and international steel price spreads widen, making China's steel export market more attractive. After preliminary seasonal adjustment, steel exports in the first quarter of 2011 were US$10.25 billion, an increase of 36.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter. Since the slowdown in growth from the previous quarter, it has accelerated again; it has increased by 20.5% from the previous quarter. The previous quarter was a decrease of 25.7% from the previous quarter.

However, in the near future, domestic steel prices have begun to gradually increase, and the domestic and international spreads have been close to historical highs, and the space for the continued growth of the steel industry's exports may be relatively limited.

Price ex-factory: On the one hand, due to strong demand for steel products, on the other hand, the upstream cost of the steel industry is still high, and the low profit status of the steel industry restricts the decline of steel prices. Under the above factors, in the first quarter of 2011, the producer prices of the steel industry rose by 17.7% year-on-year, an increase of 6.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the price index continued to increase.

Earnings: To be improved During the quarter, although steel prices maintained their upward trend, the iron and steel industry's profit margins narrowed as a result of rising iron ore import prices. After preliminary seasonal adjustments, the total profit of the steel industry in the first quarter of 2011 was 39.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly faster than the previous quarter by 15.4 percentage points; the growth rate was 1.6% from the previous quarter, and the chain growth rate fell sharply from the previous quarter by 69.9. percentage point.

The sales margin of the iron and steel industry also dropped from 2.8% in the previous quarter to 2.4% in the quarter, far lower than the national industrial sales margin of 6.0%, which is still the lowest level in the national industrial sector.

Loss: Significantly increasing the decline in profitability caused the losses and losses of steel companies to rise from the previous quarter. After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total loss of the steel industry loss-making enterprises in the first quarter of 2011 was 7.36 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 billion yuan from the previous quarter; the loss surface increased from 17.9% in the previous quarter to 20.9% in the quarter, and was significantly higher than all industries. 15.9% loss level.

Taxes: Maintaining growth In the first quarter of 2011, due to the characteristics of the tax season, although the profitability of the iron and steel industry has declined, the total tax revenue has increased. After preliminary seasonal adjustments, the total taxes of the steel industry in the first quarter of 2011 were 36.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, and the growth rate was 15.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter; the growth rate was 24.4% from the previous quarter and the growth rate was 8.8 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. According to calculations, policies and other random factors increase the steel industry's tax expenditure by 9.10 billion yuan.

Employment: Cautious Because the profitability of the steel industry has fallen again, the losses and losses of steel companies have risen, and at the same time, the growth of inventories has accelerated, leading steel companies to be cautious about investment and employment.

In the first quarter of 2011, the number of employees in the steel industry decreased from the previous quarter to 3.11 million; the number of employees increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate was 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter, but it was 9.5% higher than that of all industries above the designated size. There is still a certain gap between the growth rate.

Investment: Low level After initial season adjustment, total investment in fixed assets of the steel industry in the first quarter of 2011 was 44.49 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, a year-on-year slowdown of 17.2 percentage points from the previous quarter; a decrease of 57.2% from the previous quarter and a quarter-on-quarter ratio Increased by 15.1%. The decline in investment growth to a certain extent shows that the iron and steel industry integration, structural adjustment, energy conservation and emission reduction are gradually being promoted.

Accounts Receivable: Repayment Accelerated In the first quarter of 2011, the accounts receivable of the steel industry was 184.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate was down 3.9 percentage points from the previous quarter. According to calculations, the number of quarterly accounts receivable turnover days decreased from 12.6 days in the previous quarter to 10.9 days in the current quarter, and the capital turnover situation has improved, and is significantly better than the average turnover days of accounts receivable of 32.2 days for all industries. It shows that the iron and steel industry performed well in terms of capital utilization efficiency.

Business climate: Some rebound In the first quarter of 2011, the business climate index of steel companies was 114.2, which was a 3.0 point increase from the previous quarter. It was the first rise after two consecutive quarters of decline. It shows that steel companies have increased their confidence in the prospects for the operation of the steel industry.

In general, the demand for the steel industry in the first quarter was relatively strong. The growth rate of exports rebounded under the influence of the gradual improvement of the U.S. economy. The price of steel products continued to rise, and both the production and sales of the steel industry rebounded, and the receivables receivable rate at the same time. accelerate. The increase in the price of imported iron ore has led to increased production cost pressures. The profitability of the steel industry has fallen again. The losses and losses of steel companies have risen. The steel industry is therefore cautious about both investment and employment. Under the background of accelerating the transformation during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the investment in strategic emerging industries and affordable housing construction will further increase. At the same time, measures such as energy-saving emission reduction and rectification of local platforms will have a certain degree of inhibitory effect on investment. Therefore, as a One of the major factors affecting the development of the steel industry, investment, is expected to show a moderate downward trend. From the demand point of view, consumer products are at the forefront of the steel industry chain, and the signals contained in their market performance are likely to gradually extend to the raw material market. Taking the categories of automobiles and household appliances in consumer goods as an example, in the first quarter of this year, the retail sales of auto-related goods increased by 14.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6 percentage points; the growth rate of household appliances and audio-visual equipment was 20.5%, and the growth rate decreased by 9.1 percentage points year-on-year. The cooling of sales of these commodities may affect the demand for steel in the later period. Continued blind expansion of steel production may lead to oversupply. In the second quarter of 2011, the market situation is expected to continue to improve with the arrival of the peak season for consumption and increasing demand in the international market. As the rising trend of international bulk raw fuel prices continues, steel prices can be supported to some extent. Under the background of accelerating the structural adjustment work, the market demand for medium and high-end steel is expected to increase substantially. Although China's steel industry is expected to continue its moderate growth, it is still necessary to further accelerate the transformation of development methods, increase structural adjustment efforts, and strive to increase profitability.

The long-term development of the domestic steel industry is very optimistic. On the one hand, the cost pressure brought by rising international iron ore prices to steel companies will be contained. In recent days, the central bank revealed that it will adopt a flexible exchange rate policy to cope with the impact of imported inflation. Due to the appreciation of ***, the price of international iron ore will increase. The impact on domestic steel companies will continue to decrease, and the domestic steel companies will have more profit margins. On the other hand, after the end of governance inflation in China, the monetary tightening policy will create difficulties for the development of the real economy. At that time, in order to stimulate economic development, the government's quantitative easing policy is imperative. After the domestic inflation is expected to be controlled, the total demand for steel will usher in a blowout, which will in turn absorb the excess capacity of China's steel industry. The overall business situation of China's steel industry has seen a major turnaround.

Convergence of two innovations to promote management innovation In order to promote the healthy development of the steel industry, the iron and steel industry must seize the current opportunity to further strengthen technological innovation and management innovation, promote energy-saving emission reduction work, and constantly improve the quality and effectiveness of the industry operations. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the study and forecast of changes in the market situation, focus on a good balance between supply and demand, and further prepare for risk control. While actively implementing the “going out” strategy and participating in overseas investment in mines, iron and steel enterprises should also pay attention to preventing international mine companies from further monopolizing major iron ore ports and shipping routes in order to establish integrated mines, steel mills, and traders. The perfect ore resource security system to avoid industrial risks. It is suggested that China's iron and steel enterprises should actively participate in the investment in the maritime market, terminals, overseas mine bases, and related supporting facilities. In order to prepare for the iron ore financial market, relevant institutions should explore mechanisms such as the iron ore ** market and the index market.

In the face of the challenges of economic globalization and informationization, an important way for the Chinese economy to continue to maintain sustained growth lies in accelerating the process of industrialization, accelerating the integration of informatization and industrialization, and intensifying informationization in transforming economic growth patterns and adjusting industrial structure. The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. To promote the integration between the two, it is necessary to regard information as a strategy to support the sustainable development of enterprises, improve the promotion mechanism, realize the effective management and control of logistics, information flow, and capital flow in the entire process of the enterprise, and effectively integrate the management system and process control system, and realize the enterprise From big to strong leap.

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