PVC fundamentals gradually warm up the midline and more than a single dip choose machine admission

The PVC recent month contract has recently demonstrated a clear trend of resilience. At the bottom of V1101's continuous downfall to the oscillation range, V1009 is still within the concussion zone. In recent months, the difference between the 09 contract price and the spot price is negative, and the spread between the main 1101 contract and the spot price is also close to 0. The difference from the current price difference is simple. Compared with the PTA, the PVC is more vulnerable to the spot, the performance should be More resilient than PTA. At the same time, in view of the recent fundamentals, the fundamentals of PVC have gradually moved upward in the process of optimizing the economic structure of energy conservation and emission reduction. There have been some new and subtle changes in the New Deal of Real Estate in the near future. It is too bad for the construction industry, and the downstream demand for PVC will also play a certain boosting role. Specific analysis is as follows:

Energy conservation and emission reduction boost costs

The calcium carbide industry has been significantly affected by the nationwide energy conservation and emission reduction campaign. Although the capacity of calcium carbide involved in the list of phase-out enterprises announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is only over 700,000 tons, which is insignificant for the total capacity of calcium carbide, the national calcium-fired emission reduction campaign jointly initiated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments involved the actual production of calcium carbide. The above is far more than the data. In fact, in the first half of the year, more than 700,000 tons of closed production capacity plans have been basically determined. The backward production capacity listed in the list has basically stopped production or significantly reduced production before the list is issued, so the impact on the calcium carbide industry is limited. In the recent Inner Mongolia region, especially in the Wuhai region, there are more production shutdowns of small calcium carbide furnaces. In Gansu and Sichuan, due to the impact of natural disasters, the production of calcium carbide is also facing difficulties in transportation, and the supply of calcium carbide is tight. In Shanxi, Shaanxi, and other regions, the peak season of coal transportation was also encountered, and the transportation of calcium carbide was not smooth. Overall, the supply of calcium carbide was slightly tight recently and the price of PVC was much higher.

Looking again at the July production of calcium carbide, in July China's electricity output was 1,118,000 tons, a decrease of 13% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, the output in Ningxia fell by 21.5%, while that in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia fell by around 10%. The output of calcium carbide in Gansu fell by 4.1% and that in Xinjiang by 1.8%. Overall, the provinces in northwestern China suffered serious reduction in output. Around October, some larger calcium carbide furnaces are about to be put into production, which may cause the production of calcium carbide to increase at some point. However, during August and September, the supply of calcium carbide will remain tense, supporting the price of PVC.

Real estate New Deal turns to downstream of Lido

There have been some recent subtle changes in the New Deal. The new real estate deal of the Deputy Prime Minister personally has three information that needs special attention. One is the supervision of advance receipts for commercial housing; the second is the repeated emphasis on accelerating the construction of affordable housing; the third is a comprehensive inventory of idle land in the country.

1, supervision of advance receipts of commercial housing

After Zhengzhou and Jinan have successively issued detailed rules for the implementation of the supervision of advance receipts for commercial housing, the advance receipts for commercial housing in Beijing have also been reported to implement special supervision and control measures for advance receipts for commercial housing. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2010, about 24% of the sources of funds for real estate development companies came from deposits and advance receipts. The implementation of special funds for advance receipts means that the allocation of funds will be severely restricted by the government. After the continuous regulation and control of the capital chain has become tense real estate developers are undoubtedly a bowl of cold water poured over. From the perspective of the impact of this measure alone, the speed at which real estate companies take development of land will inevitably be affected. Some housing companies with poor capital strength are likely to surrender under this round of continuous control and the integration process of the real estate industry will accelerate. The construction industry is bearish in the medium term and it will be good for the long term.

2. Repeatedly emphasize accelerating the promotion of affordable housing construction

In the two speeches on August 13 and 21, the Deputy Prime Minister focused on promoting the construction of affordable housing. At the same time, the emphasis was placed on the construction of low-rent housing and public rental housing. The construction of affordable housing was not added. Emphasize.

This subtle change is worthy of consideration by investors. It seems that the focus of the construction of affordable housing seems to have been fine-tuned, gradually shifting from affordable housing to housing construction. Diversified housing supply is not only diversified from housing ownership, but also diversified supply and lease. From this point of view, the country does not seem to have any intention to compete with real estate developers for the market for the sale of home ownership, instead focusing on increasing the supply of rental housing use rights. This is good news for real estate developers. Previously, the author once speculated that the large-scale construction of affordable housing could lead to secondary reforms in China's housing market. From the current wording changes in Li Keqiang’s two speeches, the author believes that the second housing reform is virtually impossible to happen, and the controversial affordable housing In the coming period of time, construction will gradually give way to the construction of low-rent and public rental housing. However, the construction of 5.8 million sets of affordable housing will not be relaxed, and the small upsurge of affordable housing construction may stimulate the downstream building materials market in the fourth quarter. demand. After the weakening of the competitive relationship between the national team and the real estate agent, the real estate business's living space is once more liberalized, which is more beneficial to the downstream of the building than bad.

3, a comprehensive inventory of idle land in the country

The purpose of inventorying idle land is to make better use of the land, either returning land to the people or effectively increasing land supply for housing construction. The main purpose of combating depressions and mortuaries is to optimize land supply and housing supply, not to crack down on the real estate industry. If the land inventorying campaign can continue to be effective, the main target of the crackdown will be some unscrupulous real estate developers. It has positive significance for the long-term healthy development of the real estate market. The so-called no rule is not a complete circle. However, in the short term, due to the existence of a long transmission chain from the crackdown on the depression to the impact on housing supply, the short-term housing market has little impact. More influence comes from the psychological aspects of investors. This is mainly reflected in the changes in the real estate index of the stock market.

In summary, the author believes that the recent fundamentals of PVC have gradually improved, with the cost support brought by the shortage of calcium carbide supply, and the demand for building materials brought by the construction of affordable housing has been boosted. The author suggests that investors can set up PVC in mid-term and more. single.